Decided to write these comments after struggling with this aspect of my betting recently. As mentioned previously I have purchased Racingtraders software to dabbling in this aspect of betting. After some minimal success with 10p trades decided that things before too fast and furious trading on the GG’s for my liking.
In my spare time, I coach national league basketball and after an interesting discussion with a basketball bettor on my last business trip in Colorado, I may dabble in trading in NCAA College games when the season kicks off later this month.
Anyway back to the main trust of this post.
When using Bettrader to monitor the prices pre race, I am truly amazed on how prices can fluctuate wildly. If fact the accuracy of the betfair market prior to the race is amazing. Horses that drift “dramatically” or are priced at the bigger end of the market don’t win. Prior to using Bettrader I knew this fact but seeing the figures fluctuate real time brings home the fact. The problem for me is how do I factor this into my betting process?
I wrote previously that ideally you should wait for the market to form (the “opinion of the crowd”) and five minutes before the off. Unfortunately I don’t have the luxury of calling a halt to a program meeting while attendees allow me to have punt on my fancy.
So, I suppose I have to face up to the fact that my betting should only be reserved for periods when I can fully dedicate my attention on the prices being offered and value based on my assessment of the race. Oh well.
As an addendum to this post I received the following email from an Australian professional punter.
Dear Slipperytoad,
What a tangled path we try to tread.
Age:45
Punting Research Life:22 yrs
Disciple of Don Scott-Author of “Winning”,”The Winning Way”,”Winning More”
Actual Full-time pro-punting time:3 yrs
Strengths:Classing+Patience.
Sacrifices:2 Marriages-They were either jealous or didn’t understand the passion + need to succeed where so many have failed. Once the syringe is in it’s near impossible to take it out.
Curiosity: The Physiology + Personality needed to succeed.
Starting number of our group 22yrs ago: 12
Today:2Advice to others
1. You must admire + respect what a thoroughbred is..
2. If u cant win betting $1.00 u cant win betting $1,000.+
3. Limit your loss days to 2 units {1 unit= 5% of bank.}
4. Bet only double-priced selections-9/1 >.
Spent significant time thinking about (2) recently, and its becoming clear that I need to heed this advice. Leaning toward virtual bets until I can prove my methods are heading in the right direction.
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Tags: Trading
1 Response to When to Place a Bet
Sand Racer
December 1st, 2007 at 06:25
I have noticed on Betfair something about the outsiders prices.
Most horses are 2/3 to double the S.P of outsiders. However, if an outsider on Betfair is around the same mark as when the bookies market opens, the horse invariably gets backed – almost off the board.
Can’t say i’ve noticed it is usable as a way to spot winners however. But knowing how the market may play out in the next 10 minutes has proven helpful in the past.