If your search the various chat forums and read enough handicapping literature punters can be divided into selection orientated (a winner at any price) verses value orientated (a bet at “A” price).

After a number of aborted attempts I nailed my colours to the small percentage of punters who are value orientated given that this method can be proved objectively and match my cautious character.

One of the essential tools required in value betting is your own betting forecast.

What puts most punters off (and by definition forcing them to become selection orientated) is the very act of doing one is considered too complicated and time consuming. Why bother when bookies provide a perfectly adequate list of starting prices on betting shop screens or on course in the betting ring?

I can testify after many attempts that it can take a while to get your head around the act of creating a personal odds line however; today I can announce that I have reached a stage where I now have confidence in my own approach.

The tissue below is from yesterdays 7.50 at Kempton

The winner was Emirates Sports. I am not concerned that he was third choice my tissue as this was due to an easily corrected handicapping error (garbage in = garbage out)

The spreadsheet automatically calculates the odds line to 100% using base odds from Corals who are (via “informed” opinion), the most proficient in the business when it comes to odds on horses.

Using on course market odds just before the off, the spreadsheet calculates my percentage edge with anything over 15% (highlighted in green) considered a value bet. Any horse with an edge over 50% (highlighted in red) is reviewed to determine why I and the market differ in our respective opinions.

The columns in grey use the Kelly Criterion to determine what percentage of my bank I should stake depending on confidence either high (full kelly), medium (half kelly) or low (qtr kelly).

The calculations to create the spreadsheet are well documented. What’s not well documented is the effect of the favourite-long shot bias. An understanding of this anomaly ensures accuracy when pricing outsider’s verses legitimate contenders and the spreadsheet factors this bias into the base calculations.

So there are no excuses now. Its time to record each and every bet to monitor my method using the tools above.

Update: 15:48 pm 2/7/09

After reading the comments above I guess you are wondering what is my motivation in create a personal betting forecast. Here’s your answer

And here’s the real downer for those of us looking for the magic bullet: “The fact of the matter is, there is no short cut. The only way to win is through sheer hard work.”

Which is what Veitch engages in, spending hour upon hour analysing horses’
performance, to see how that matches up to bookies’ pricing, seeking always to find a profitable gap between assumption and fact.

Patrick Veitch: Tormentor of the bookies

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As predicted Setanta has gone into administration. Racing UK piggybacked off Setanta’s backend processes for example subscription collection and will now go it alone as a stand alone racing channel. Unfortunately the price for subscription has been increased from £12.99 to £20 per month.

Let’s review what’s happened today!

The Racing Post is planning to implement a subscription service in July rumoured at a cost of £20 month. If you want to watch Racing UK total overheads are now a minimum of £40 month, £480 year (excluding travel and trips to racecourses, specialist trading software etc)

Given the current economic plight of your typical punter,  my gut feel tells me that Racing UK is next on the list of companies that will be consumed by the current financial storm that is raging through indebted Britain!

“It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.” When everyone is enjoying good times, you don’t know who has taken on excessive risks.
Warren Buffet

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I should have twigged something was afoot last night when preparing for Bath’s evening card on Wednesday. The Racing Post splash screen indicated that the site was unavailable from 10pm to 3am due to “essential maintenance”.

Woke up this morning to find that they have made so called enhancements and changes to the website. In reality from July you need to become a member (and charged accordingly) to access the following

• Spotlights
• Postdata
• Racing Post Ratings (RPR) tables
• Topspeed tables
• Selection boxes
• Post-race analysis
• Raceform Notebook
• Analysis of winning times
• Previous winners’ tables
• Horse statistics
• RPR and Topspeed ratings on horse pages
• Horse sales
• Horse relatives
• Sales search
• Information
• Quotes from trainers
• Racing business news
• News archive
• Tipping
• Pricewise Extra
• Trading Post
• Trading Post Extra
• Training Centres
• Big-race Trends
• In-running pointers

This is the second (or is it third) attempt the bean counters from Canada Square have tried to implement a subscription based business model for their website. It is doomed to fail and here’s why

1. Apart from the obvious (iTunes, music, video and porn), name a website that is making serious money charging for access to its content? The various broad sheets at Fleet Street tired and failed so what makes the Racing Post different?
2. Were the top rated horses in the Racing Post Ratings causing the bookies to run for cover?
3. Were the Racing Post tipsters causing the bookies to run for cover?
4. Given that the betting shop edition of the Racing Post is plastered on the wall of every bookmaker in the land, were the punters steaming into the selection highlighted in the race “Verdict” box?

The value placed on information is relative. If it’s useful (in this case profitable) then someone will pay for it. If punters perceive they are getting nothing in return for their monthly subscription (a long stream of losers) then they will look elsewhere.

I shall pay the subscription, for me the Racing Post is a vast database of numbers that require interpretation in my own unique approach per my maxim.

Common sense dictates that you cannot outsmart the public if you are handicapping with the same information and methods as the public

Most punters are not interested in working out which side of the draw has the most pace (20/6/09:  Ascot 4.25 High Standing @ 7/1 drawn 28 paid for a nice weekend away in Cardiff when most pundits stated that a low draw was required to win the Wokingham). Most punters are not interested that draw 1 over 6 furlongs at Lingfield is a coffin box.

All punters are interested in is a source of information that provides a steady stream of winners with minimal effort on their part, the Racing Post however much they market their content isn’t the path to the payout window!

The Racing Post may have cornered the market in respect to sporting newspaper however to coin a phrase I picked up from another blog in the age of the internet, this medium is going the way of the dodo (“dead tree press”).

To implement a strategy that charges the customer a fee for access to the on-line version of the paper is questionable especially when there are “free” alternatives of opinions and selections such as the Sporting Life, Timeform and At The Races.

Update 5.00 pm: The chaps over at the Racing Forum are voting with their feet!

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